The June 2022 joint report from the World Bank and its partners estimates that 70% of ten-year-olds in low- and middle-income countries cannot read and understand a simple text. The report puts the comparable figure before the pandemic at 57%, using updated evidence. These are estimates of learning poverty, with the pandemic figure informed by simulations. Their scope covers low- and middle-income countries. The State of Global Learning Poverty: 2022 Update.
That earlier figure changes the ambition of recovery. Returning children to pre-closure learning conditions still leaves a large share struggling with basic reading. Education leaders have to decide what recovery should achieve for children whose difficulties predate the emergency.
Reading makes the next lesson possible
Consider a child who can recognise some words in a science textbook but cannot follow the explanation. The difficulty extends into the science lesson. Written instructions require help, and each new page asks the child to use a skill they are still developing. A curriculum that moves forward at a fixed pace can allow that dependency to grow.
This is why foundational reading deserves a place in decisions about the whole curriculum. A learner who can make sense of a passage has another way to seek an explanation and revisit an idea. The educational value extends beyond a reading score.
Schools should preserve access to demanding ideas while helping children develop the reading needed to work with them. Age-appropriate discussion can continue alongside explicit support with text. Asking an older child to practise a missing skill should respect their age and interests. Repeating material designed for much younger children can make a necessary intervention feel like a punishment.
Recovery needs a different starting point
Our reading of the 2022 findings is that recovery plans should begin with what children can demonstrate. A timetable based entirely on the pages missed during closures assumes that the prerequisites for those pages are secure. Teachers need enough room to examine that assumption and adjust their plans.
A short reading conversation can help a teacher decide where to begin. It should lead to a practical change in instruction, followed by another opportunity for the child to show what they understand. The school also needs to establish who provides additional support when a class teacher cannot meet every need within the normal lesson.
For leaders, this creates a specific budget question: how much protected teaching time do children receive to strengthen foundational reading? Plans should identify that time and the staff responsible for it. Reviews can then examine the work children produce and whether the planned support reaches them.